Category: Knowledge

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What am I thinking?

Hasn’t the year flown by so far? We are already mid way through October, well in to “The Spooky Season” and that leaves less than 10 weeks left until Christmas!

Hunting Season

Half way through October marks a special time in the seasonal investment returns calendar. These next two quarters on average bring around double the return we receive over the previous two quarters. As you know October to March last year brought a far higher return than we could have rightly expected and April to September has been below average at best. Holding more of our portfolios in cash throughout the Summer when return expectations were low has been a comfort to many clients. Yesterday was the 39th anniversary of Black Monday. The FTSE 100 fell 10.8% on the Monday followed by 12.2% on the Tuesday. I had only been in the industry since February ’87 so it was a rude awakening indeed. There was much talk of a similar market outcome yesterday, but we were spared. Perhaps the 40th anniversary next year is the one to look out for. Celebrating 40 years in this profession next February 3rd will be pretty special for me.

Political Season

Along with the opportunities that this coming period of the calendar brings, we receive another tailwind from the US Presidential cycle. This third year is on average the strongest of the four year cycle. So a couple of intersecting good investment periods on the doorstep; What’s not to like?

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What is Money?

Have you ever wondered; 

  • What is money anyway? 
  • Why do we trust money?
  • What’s that five pound note in your pocket really worth? 
  • Where does money come from and where does it go?

I’m guessing the answer is probably not. Money is just an everyday thing.  It’s there, we just spend it or save it.

Our own currency that we spend everyday is taken for granted, except when we travel and it’s no longer accepted as currency. Why is it even called currency?  Well the answer to the last question is indeed predictable. It’s the current value of our money versus other countries money. Which in itself begs the questions; 

  • What was our money worth previously? 
  • Was it worth more or less?

To answer these questions we need to go back a long way in time. To a time before money existed. 

Sapiens

I have read some very influential books in my time. Very few have been works of fiction. I’m intellectually poorer for that I guess. My Northern upbringing of seeking “value for money” has directed me solely to books I can learn from. One such book is Sapiens – A brief history of mankind by Yuval Noah Harare. Before reading this book I believed the Agricultural Revolution was the time before tractors. But no. The agricultural revolution was the time when primitive humans ceased to be hunter-gatherers and became the farmers of crops and livestock. Who knew? That transition changed everything. Prior to farming, life was free, but probably not easy.  Food was collected as needed, a free for all endless all you can find buffet. Once all the food was taken from one area, individuals moved on. A truly nomadic experience. Nobody was a landowner, primitive tools were the only possessions, used to dig for roots perhaps. Recent Bill Gates funded research wouldn’t have been needed back then, like today’s Aborigines, we would be happy obtaining protein from grubs. 

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Turn off the news

“I’ve been saying this since the 2009 Financial Crisis, and I’ll say it again today:

Turn off the news.

Back then, I was glued to the financial media. I’d watch the major networks, read the papers, soak up the headlines. I thought I was doing my job as an investment manager by being informed.

But all anyone did on TV was scream at each other. The newspapers were filled with terrifying headlines designed to make you panic — and usually trick you into doing something stupid with your money.

So I stopped.

I stopped letting the fear machine into my head. I stopped investing based on other people’s emotions. I decided to let the market tell me what was happening — not the suits on TV or the clickbait headlines.

Fast forward to today. I’m seeing people on social media flipping out about geopolitical developments, bombs dropping, oil surging, and the stock market “about to crash.”

The U.S. dropped some bombs this weekend and the fear juices are flowing.

I get it. The world feels shaky sometimes.

But when those feelings rise up, I take a breath… and I go look at the charts.

Because here’s the truth: the market is the news.

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