Knowledge – Independent Advice Ltd.

12/11/202612/11/2026

Seasons Greetings

Don’t worry, I’m not one of those who stretches Christmas out over 2 months. Less “‘Tis the season to be jolly” this blog is more “‘Tis the season to make money”. In my last blog I revisited seasonality, explaining that more of our financial returns occur over the northern hemisphere winter period versus over the summer period. Team that up with year three of a presidential cycle usually bringing the best returns out of the four and we stop battling a headwind and enter a period with a tailwind.

Rebalance

As you can see we rebalanced yesterday and put some of our cash to use. Interest rates in the UK rose by 0.25% recently which will no doubt filter through to our cash held on platform soon, but we believe we can now do better than just a cash return over the coming months. Some defensive shares (not defence industry) have been let go or reduced, some on our long term watchlist have been added and some of our past and current star performers have been increased.

This rebalance reflects 4 geo-political changes that have occurred since the Spring series of equity sales.

20/10/2026

What am I thinking?

Hasn’t the year flown by so far? We are already mid way through October, well in to “The Spooky Season” and that leaves less than 10 weeks left until Christmas!

Hunting Season

Half way through October marks a special time in the seasonal investment returns calendar. These next two quarters on average bring around double the return we receive over the previous two quarters. As you know October to March last year brought a far higher return than we could have rightly expected and April to September has been below average at best. Holding more of our portfolios in cash throughout the Summer when return expectations were low has been a comfort to many clients. Yesterday was the 39th anniversary of Black Monday. The FTSE 100 fell 10.8% on the Monday followed by 12.2% on the Tuesday. I had only been in the industry since February ’87 so it was a rude awakening indeed. There was much talk of a similar market outcome yesterday, but we were spared. Perhaps the 40th anniversary next year is the one to look out for. Celebrating 40 years in this profession next February 3rd will be pretty special for me.

Political Season

Along with the opportunities that this coming period of the calendar brings, we receive another tailwind from the US Presidential cycle. This third year is on average the strongest of the four year cycle. So a couple of intersecting good investment periods on the doorstep; What’s not to like?

28/06/202528/06/2025

What is Money?

Have you ever wondered;

What is money anyway?
Why do we trust money?
What’s that five pound note in your pocket really worth?
Where does money come from and where does it go?

I’m guessing the answer is probably not. Money is just an everyday thing. It’s there, we just spend it or save it.

Our own currency that we spend everyday is taken for granted, except when we travel and it’s no longer accepted as currency. Why is it even called currency? Well the answer to the last question is indeed predictable. It’s the current value of our money versus other countries money. Which in itself begs the questions;

What was our money worth previously?
Was it worth more or less?

To answer these questions we need to go back a long way in time. To a time before money existed.

Sapiens

I have read some very influential books in my time. Very few have been works of fiction. I’m intellectually poorer for that I guess. My Northern upbringing of seeking “value for money” has directed me solely to books I can learn from. One such book is Sapiens – A brief history of mankind by Yuval Noah Harare. Before reading this book I believed the Agricultural Revolution was the time before tractors. But no. The agricultural revolution was the time when primitive humans ceased to be hunter-gatherers and became the farmers of crops and livestock. Who knew? That transition changed everything. Prior to farming, life was free, but probably not easy. Food was collected as needed, a free for all endless all you can find buffet. Once all the food was taken from one area, individuals moved on. A truly nomadic experience. Nobody was a landowner, primitive tools were the only possessions, used to dig for roots perhaps. Recent Bill Gates funded research wouldn’t have been needed back then, like today’s Aborigines, we would be happy obtaining protein from grubs.