A Portfolio For The Shorter Term
Only of limited use to the long term investor.
Cautious Portfolio Target
The goal of this portfolio is to attempt to preserve the long-term buying power of your savings..
A 2.5% per annum compound return is required to match the long term expected rise of Consumer Price Inflation.
Performance to Date
- If you hover your cursor on your computer, or touch your smart device screen over the “double over a decade” line on the chart, you can see that 100% invested became 200% on 01/11/2019, which was 10 years from commencement.
- Obviously it is impossible to double savings over a decade taking such little investment risk.
- Growth to our cautious managed portfolio has now added 86% to the original capital invested.
- Every £100 invested originally is now worth £186.
We believe it is virtually impossible to beat current inflation levels by utilising “lower risk” assets such as gilts and corporate bonds. With inflation and fixed interest rates now rising, significant falls in capital values of those gilts and bonds is inevitable. A combination of risk-free cash and lower risk shares probably carries too much risk currently for a truly cautious investor and holding a significant amount in cash can only reduce the buying power of life savings.
What’s The Worst That Could Happen In The Future?
To answer this question about the future, there is no better place to start than by looking to the past. The performance chart above depicts what has actually occurred in a real portfolio since inception to date. The performance stated is after all management costs have been deducted. It is a true representation of the growth achieved by a client.
If you can accept the level of regular set-backs that occur within this portfolio when you have looked at the chart above, then it could be suitable for you. The next section tries to quantify the expected variation in highs and lows for this managed portfolio to give you a better idea of what to expect.
Our Measure of Portfolio Volatility
We make this projection at the end of each calendar year and was last updated 01/01/2022. It is an annual graphical depiction of the probability of the following years return. We use a technique known as Standard Deviation to measure the spread of returns.
- The middle Dark Green bar is an average continuation of the annual performance achieved over the last 6 calendar years, which has been 6.0% net of all charges.
- If past performance were exactly a guide to the future then we should end the year exactly with the additional of this level of projected growth
- However as the FCA insist, past performance isn’t necessarily a guide to the future.
- Most of the time, about 2 years out of every 3, future annual performance should lie somewhere between the mid green bar of 14.2% and the amber bar of -2.2%.
- We can state with 68.2% confidence that the return next year should lie somewhere between the extremes of these bars.
- Almost all of the time, 19 years out of every 20 years, annual performance will lie between the limits of the upper pale green bar 22.4% and the lowest red bar -10.4%.
- We can state with 95.4% confidence that the future value should be somewhere between the extremes of these bars.
- That still leaves the unlikely event that a 1 year return could come along once every investing lifetime. Once in 43 years the return could be higher than 22.4% or lower than -10.4%.
- Any potential investor needs to assess how this unlikely, but possible negative outcome, could affect their future financial plans
6 Year Standard Deviation of Past Returns
What’s My Bottom Line?There is no bottom line. But in simple terms we believe you could invest your savings into this portfolio if you can withstand a potential 1 year loss of up to -10.4%. Annual losses will occur some of the years. We always expect that an investor remains invested for at least 5 years.
Obviously withdrawals can be taken from any of the managed portfolios we offer, at anytime, including our AIM (Alternative Investment Market) and Go For Growth managed portfolios. There is no additional charge to take a single withdrawal or a one-off series of withdrawals (Never accept an admin charge from a firm to receive your own savings back!). Please give us 10 days notice to ensure any investments can be sold down if required, to provide cleared cash ready to be transferred to your designated bank account.
Would this Managed Portfolio be suitable for me?
Well perhaps it is suitable now you have seen the past performance and the bumps along the way, but let’s ensure choosing it as a home for your life savings would be a wise decision. We don’t want the perhaps expensive consequences of making a mistake. There is a phrase you learn early as a trainee private pilot, when looking at the weather forecast and deciding whether to fly or not. If in any doubt then don’t do it.
Do I stay or do I go.
You’d rather be down here – wishing you were up there, than up there – wishing you were down here!
No regrets, let’s get this decision right
Our attitude to risk is determined from the sum of our personal experiences, built over our lifetimes. Our risk attitude can fluctuate by the day, depending on the recent ratio of good news to bad news, but it usually deviates little from an individuals long term base level of acceptable risk.
I believe for many individuals, it’s the sudden market falls that can break our resolve. I don’t tend to receive calls from clients that are getting frightened because their personal level of life savings is remaining static or rising strongly. (Although a strongly rising market is usually a worry for me as I understand what usually comes next). The regret felt is usually because an individual has not taken into account “The 3 Takes”. Let me explain.
Take 1 – Will
We maybe know the level of investment risk we feel we are willing to take. We either usually take all kinds of risks or we don’t usually take risks. Our will is strong.
Take 2 – Need
Next we must consider the level of investment risk we need to take. We should look at what we are trying to achieve and how much that would cost. This is often overlooked.
Take 3 – Afford
Finally we need to consider the level of investment risk we can afford to take. This “Take” is often forgotten about. Although we should hope for the best, we must plan for the worst.
How much risk do I need to take?
That depends on how much money you currently have and how much living you have left in you. If you cannot see yourself spending your current life savings in your lifetime, you have the opportunity to take less investment risk. If you would like the future to be jam-packed with great adventures, then your savings probably need to work harder.
How much risk can I afford to take?
This is a very important consideration. What’s your Plan B if the level of your investments has fallen dramatically? Do bills still need to be paid? Or are all your essentials covered by other means and future withdrawals from this capital are just for the nice things in life? Nice things that can wait until markets recover?
As you can see the personal suitability of a managed portfolio rests upon many factors
- The term of this investment
- Your underlying attitude to investment risk
- Your resolve and capacity to take temporary drops in value in your stride.
- Your capacity to take temporary drops or interruptions in income.
- Your level of investment knowledge
- Your previous investment experience
If you have taken all of the above factors into account with your choice of managed portfolio, then you are good to go. Feel free to now hit the choose button below.
If you would like more help we have a series of questions for you. Only you have the answers and they should help you make this important decision.
Can I change my mind?
Of course. There is no time for regret, because unlike taking off into the wild blue yonder it’s easy to put right if you later change your mind. You can switch between our managed portfolios at any time. Often individuals have savings in several different managed portfolios at the same time.
What does the Financial Conduct Authority Say?
Past performance is no guide to the future. The value of investments can rise as well as fall
What comes next?
Choose your Managed Portfolios and leave the management of your life savings to us.