Category: Quarterly Reviews

At the halfway point of the year

Well 6 months have flown by, and so far the returns generated in the portfolio reflect a “normal” investment year. If there is such a thing these days? The first quarter is usually strong, followed by a quarter of catch-up, which is reflected in the returns generated by our main portfolios so far this year. All portfolios remain on target to achieve their annual targets at this point.

What’s a “normal” year?

Veterans of our investment management service know that we generate the bulk of our returns in the 1st and 4th quarters of the year, with the 2nd and 3rd quarter usually only generating less than 25% of the years returns in total.

July to October should drift along nicely with little to show by way of returns, but hopefully without major wealth threatening dramas either. That said, July started with political meltdowns in France which potentially jeopardise the future of the EU as a trading block and of course the attempted assassination of a US President in waiting and the realisation that the current POTUS probably hasn’t been calling the shots for years. Political drama enough already!

Did we navigate the UK General Election in OK shape?

On the whole yes, but as always we could have done better in hindsight. We positioned for the likely result, which wasn’t exactly hard given every man and his dog also guessed the likely colour change in parliament. There was no shock in the markets as was expected by the UK shock index I referred to in my previous blog.

We expected a drop in Big Oils – Shell & BP (Labour’s Net Zero promises) and utilities UU, South West Water, Centrica etc. (The threat of nationalisation) – we have not held any of these shares for some time. However we did not position ourselves as heavily in social house builders eg. Vistry in particular and the others Barretts etc. as the FTSE 100 index does, which was perhaps a missed opportunity.

In a week or so we will all be in the new tax year. Let’s take a look at how the last one played out for us as investors.

Although it has been 5 years or so since I watched a single game of football (no World Cup, no Euros, no Manchester United) I thought I would add a football theme to this performance blog. Like football, investment can be tedious at times and stretch our patience, but then there are moments of magic too. Let’s hope the current magic continues.

Football verses Soccer

Although I haven’t watched a game of soccer (US speak for football) I have watched many games of football (US speak for American football). If only the Yanks would speak English, it would make understanding much easier. Language difficulties are not just linked to sport. In investment we have shares they have stocks, we have gilts they have treasuries, we have bonds and they have….bonds. OK there are some similarities too.

I love the strategy behind football (I’ve started so I will stick with it), I like the concept that the two teams never meet. Unlike in soccer , where the same 11 players of the first team play the 11 players of the opposing team. Striker can tackle striker and defender can tackle defender. In football there are two teams and special teams too. Star quarterback never goes up against the opposing teams star quarterback. The offensive team is met by a defensive opposition, and vice versa. 11 players on, 11 players off when the tide turns. Talk about parking the bus, in football they bring on guys the size of a tranny van and then park a second set of vehicles behind that row.

Individual team members are chosen because;

• They can throw a ball, but not necessarily catch one well.
• Catch a ball, but probably couldn’t throw well.
• Run fast.
• Dodge.
• Block.
• Kick.
• Think.
• Be thoughtless.

There are parallels to be had in investing. Defensive shares versus growth shares for instance; there is a time in the game to choose one or the other or both. The list above is a proxy for asset allocation in investment. But I’ll be honest, I just love all of the football stats.