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Turn off the news

“I’ve been saying this since the 2009 Financial Crisis, and I’ll say it again today:

Turn off the news.

Back then, I was glued to the financial media. I’d watch the major networks, read the papers, soak up the headlines. I thought I was doing my job as an investment manager by being informed.

But all anyone did on TV was scream at each other. The newspapers were filled with terrifying headlines designed to make you panic — and usually trick you into doing something stupid with your money.

So I stopped.

I stopped letting the fear machine into my head. I stopped investing based on other people’s emotions. I decided to let the market tell me what was happening — not the suits on TV or the clickbait headlines.

Fast forward to today. I’m seeing people on social media flipping out about geopolitical developments, bombs dropping, oil surging, and the stock market “about to crash.”

The U.S. dropped some bombs this weekend and the fear juices are flowing.

I get it. The world feels shaky sometimes.

But when those feelings rise up, I take a breath… and I go look at the charts.

Because here’s the truth: the market is the news.

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May The Force Be With You

“Sell in May and go away, don’t come back till St. Leger”s day”

When trading shares was a manual process, the above investment practice undoubtedly held true 70% of the time. However in this current fast-paced, algorithmic trading world, the results obtained have become no better than 50/50. Effectively the saying is today about as true as any other old wives tale. We do however continue to make higher returns over the Winter months usually. The beginning of 2025 saw early impressive returns eliminated as Donald Trump sent the markets into a tailspin with his tariff announcements. As this behaviour doesn’t occur every year, don’t expect this year to follow traditional patterns.

Politics and Investment

In my previous blog “The stroke of a pen” I quoted Eoin Treacy who correctly deduced that “The benefit of using tariffs for the purpose of manipulating the bond market is they can be turned off with the stroke of a pen.” March was not likely to bring a market meltdown like the structural problems of the Great Financial Crisis of 2009 did. The Trump tariffs have been raised and lowered in successive waves faster than a lady of the night’s underwear. (Toned down analogy to prevent blushes) Through pronouncement after pronouncement on Truth Social, the rattle of a keyboard rather than the stroke of a pen, which have seen the markets, and also currency rise and fall quickly in response. Trying to respond by buying or selling is a fools endeavour. I believe it is important to not let our political affiliations lead our investment decisions. Many Americans sold down and ran to safety, because they were card carrying Democrats. They have missed out on the best May performance of the US markets since the release of “Pretty Woman” in 1990. Our portfolios too have surged, held back only slightly, by a weakening Dollar. I can see the Dollar weakening further, but I cannot see the Pound strengthening much further. UK debt problems look set to accelerate as the amount collected in taxes continues to fall, making investment into the UK fall.

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The Stroke of a Pen

“the pen is mightier than the sword”

was first used by English author Edward Bulwer-Lytton in 1839.

It seems 186 years later, the phrase still rings true. We have entered a period of extreme uncertainty for all global citizens, governments and of course for us investors. This week will surely be as gut-wrenching as the last.

Many powers around the world, China, Russia, Iran and of course the EU had become committed to the idea that the US was not the Superpower it once was. It could be challenged and nibbled at continually, without provoking a response. Three terms of Obama in power, (no, I don’t believe I’ve made an incorrect statement here) have lead to much of the world believing Uncle Sam is a spent force. With the stroke of a pen, actually with very many strokes of the pen, Trump has unleashed the only bargaining tool he holds – the keys to the US consumers spending habits.

Bombastic, Bully, Stupid, Oligarch, Orangeman, Criminal, Failed Businessman. All probably true of the man to some extent, but of one thing we can be sure, he has huge Cahoonas and follows through on his campaign promises.

I have pretty much devoured every quality article written so far to try to understand the rationale, but more importantly to plot our course once again, now the wind has swung through a full 180 degrees. So far the best reasoning has come from Eoin Treacy, who is a member of our own investment committee. He writes….

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