2018 was a year to forget for us as investors. It was about damage limitation after the year’s earlier peaks. However I hope 2018 was a year to remember for you as an individual. Let me take this opportunity of wishing you and your family all the best for 2019.
As 2018 closed, like the All World Index shown above, we found ourselves counting our losses. The synchronised global growth I described last year has turned into a synchronised global slump. In the same blog I went on to say;
Although the primary trend is for a long term rise in share values, make no mistake there will be more hiccups along the way. A short term downturn or two is common within a long term uptrend. We have not witnessed a non-political hiccup for almost 2 years.
If we view our investment lifetimes as a war, then we lost a battle in 2018. Similar to those we lost in 2011, 2008 & 2000.
The expression was brought to modern prominence by Queen Elizabeth II in a speech to Guildhall on 24 November 1992, marking the 40th anniversary of her accession, in which she described the year as an annus horribilis.
1992 is not a year on which I shall look back with undiluted pleasure. In the words of one of my more sympathetic correspondents, it has turned out to be an annus horribilis.
Early Sunday morning saw the first signs of a light frost. It’s a harsh reminder that summer is officially over. I believe that there is a further warm spell on it’s way so Autumn could still yield a surprise or two yet.
When the leaves start to fall, it signals to me that it’s the time of the year where some serious investment decisions need to be made. October generally holds a few surprises, but then global markets usually start to rise from here.
Before I talk about our future direction, its worthwhile to describe what has happened so far this year.
Weather-wise this has been a record summer.
Investment-wise it hasn’t been as memorable.
In Brexit pre-occupied Great Britain, we believe much of the UK’s investment performance is driven by the negotiations held with the EU. “It’s all about us”. It isn’t. We are not the centre of the world’s investing public. Continue reading “October 2018 Investment Review”
It has already started. Stories about financial crashes and credit crunches. You see, the 10th Anniversary of the Great Financial Crisis is upon us this month.
Lehman Brothers collapse was the start of the Credit Crunch, the Stock Market Crash and the Quantitive Easing that ensued. So be prepared for article after article and wall to wall expert commentary focussing on what went wrong 10 years ago. But be prepared for the inevitable doom-mongers stating that 10 years on, it’s about to happen again.
I had to laugh when I heard Gordon Brown’s recent comments that the “End is nigh!”. Strange really, the meltdown happened on his watch and he didn’t see it coming back then when it was his job. I remember him saying the days of boom and bust are over prior to the biggest bust in living history. Continue reading “(Un-)Happy Anniversary”