What’s The Worst That Could Happen In The Future?
To answer this question about the future, there is no better place to start than by looking to the past. The performance chart above depicts what has actually occurred in a real portfolio since inception to date. The performance stated is after all management costs have been deducted. It is a true representation of the growth achieved by a client.
If you can accept the level of regular set-backs that occur within this portfolio when you have looked at the chart above, then it could be suitable for you. The next section tries to quantify the expected variation in highs and lows for this managed portfolio to give you a better idea of what to expect.
We make this projection at the end of each calendar year and was last updated 01/01/2023. It is an annual graphical depiction of the probability of the following years return. We use a technique known as Standard Deviation to measure the spread of returns. Statistically* it is correct.
- The middle Dark Green bar is an average continuation of the annual performance achieved over the last 7 calendar years, which has been 3.3% net of all charges.
- If past performance were exactly a guide to the future then we should end the year exactly with the additional of this level of projected growth
- However as the FCA insist, past performance isn’t necessarily a guide to the future.
- Most of the time, about 2 years out of every 3, future annual performance should lie somewhere between the mid green bar of 26.4% and the amber bar of -19.9%.
- We can state with 68.2% confidence that the return next year should lie somewhere between the extremes of these bars.
- Almost all of the time, 19 years out of every 20 years, annual performance will lie between the limits of the upper pale green bar 49.6% and the lowest red bar -43.0%.
- We can state with 95.4% confidence that the future value should be somewhere between the extremes of these bars.
- That still leaves the unlikely event that a 1 year return could come along once every investing lifetime. Once in 43 years the return could be higher than 49.6% or lower than -43.0%.
- Any potential investor needs to assess how these tiny, but possible outcomes, could affect their future financial plans
7 Year Standard Deviation of Past Returns
What’s My Bottom Line?
There is no bottom line. But in simple terms we believe you could invest your savings into this portfolio if you can withstand a potential 1 year loss of up to -43.0%. Annual losses will occur some of the years. We always expect that an investor remains invested for at least 5 years and obviously to retain the benefits of investing in an AIM portfolio the investment needs to be held for life.
Superpowers
Our Power of Discretion
noun:
The right to choose something, or choose to do something, according to what seems most suitable in a particular situation.
Free Withdrawals
Obviously withdrawals can be taken from any of the managed portfolios we offer, at anytime, including our AIM (Alternative Investment Market). There is no additional charge to take a single withdrawal or a one-off series of withdrawals (Never accept an admin charge from a firm to receive your own savings back!). Please give us 5 days notice to ensure any investments can be sold down if required, to provide cleared cash ready to be transferred to your designated bank account.