Milton Friedman, the conservative University of Chicago economist and Nobel Prize winner, started talking about long and variable lags in the late 1950s. He described that the process central banks follow to aid or retard economic activity by adjusting interest rates up or down is fraught with timing issues. When interest rates rise, they will eventually show their effect, but very little change occurs immediately.
Think of economic activity as a fully laden oil tanker, when the brakes are applied it takes miles and miles before the slow down to a standstill finally occurs. The knack therefore is not to brake too late or the tanker will run aground.
There is an emerging fear that central banks should have applied the brakes months ago.
We have watched valuations of our portfolios ebb and flow over summer in typical fashion. Veteran investors have experience of lower return summer months and higher return winter months. But suddenly September is back to haunt us once more as the month of the year which typically gives the lowest returns. This year it’s negative returns so far, taking our valuations down to the lowest point since April.
The US Federal Reserve has maintained the confidence of market participants so far as a delivery of a “Soft Landing” seemed to be achievable. In turn this soft landing was anticipated here in the UK and across Europe. Last October in “Have Interest Rates Peaked?” I said;
Continue reading “Long and Variable Lags”The real indicator for central banks is the level of unemployment. So far the rises have been low, but at some point the trickle picks up speed and then it positively floods higher if central banks send rates too high and put companies out of business. The level of un-employment itself is a lagging indicator. The numbers aren’t reported until it is too late and those individuals are placed on “the dole” or whatever it is called today.
