Investment – Independent Advice Ltd.

20/10/2026

What am I thinking?

Hasn’t the year flown by so far? We are already mid way through October, well in to “The Spooky Season” and that leaves less than 10 weeks left until Christmas!

Hunting Season

Half way through October marks a special time in the seasonal investment returns calendar. These next two quarters on average bring around double the return we receive over the previous two quarters. As you know October to March last year brought a far higher return than we could have rightly expected and April to September has been below average at best. Holding more of our portfolios in cash throughout the Summer when return expectations were low has been a comfort to many clients. Yesterday was the 39th anniversary of Black Monday. The FTSE 100 fell 10.8% on the Monday followed by 12.2% on the Tuesday. I had only been in the industry since February ’87 so it was a rude awakening indeed. There was much talk of a similar market outcome yesterday, but we were spared. Perhaps the 40th anniversary next year is the one to look out for. Celebrating 40 years in this profession next February 3rd will be pretty special for me.

Political Season

Along with the opportunities that this coming period of the calendar brings, we receive another tailwind from the US Presidential cycle. This third year is on average the strongest of the four year cycle. So a couple of intersecting good investment periods on the doorstep; What’s not to like?

07/08/202607/08/2026

Dry Spell

Met Office UK 1 Month Long Range Weather Forecast

The broad theme of high pressure remaining in place at least close to the UK seems most probable, with occasional more unsettled or changeable interludes, either resulting from Atlantic frontal systems or thundery plumes. This means that rainfall amounts overall are more likely to be below normal than above. Temperatures will probably be above average and some spells of hot weather and heatwaves are possible, especially in the south.

Are we any the wiser now? Was it worth the time it took to read this? Let’s look at how many “we don’t knows” feature in the above paragraph.

broad theme – at least close to – most probable – occasional – more unsettled – changeable – either – more likely – probably – some spells – are possible.

11 “we don’t knows”. 20 out of a total of 69 words. However we are talking about the relatively short term weather here, not to be confused with stating facts about the obviously changing climate. Here’s some climatology definitions-

Weather

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) : “what you experience when you step outside on any given day.” NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration): “conditions outside right now in a specific place (rain, snow, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc.)”.

Climate

NOAA: “Climate is determined by the long-term pattern of temperature and precipitation averages and extremes at a location.” NASA: “The climate of a region or city is its typical or average weather” — determined by observing weather conditions over many years, typically 30 years or more.

Climate Change

NOAA: “changes in average weather conditions that persist over multiple decades or longer.” NASA: “a change in average conditions (temperature, rainfall, etc.) over a long period of time’.

All of the above definitions have been grabbed off the web by AI. So perhaps take them as a guideline only, but these are the guys with accurate measuring equipment and no axe to grind.

20/05/202620/05/2026

Reflections

This morning finds us over 8500 miles from the office, watching the sun rise over the Timor Sea off the Northern Coast of Australia. We are on our travels again, this time in celebration of 40 years of marriage. A ruby wedding anniversary! It is a little unsettling as my memories of ruby wedding celebrations centre around old couples, St. Gregory’s Social Club (famous as the club used for Peter Kaye’s Phoenix Nights) and finger buffets.

It seems apt to reflect on our married life so far, our journey, on a journey. A cruise, especially one like this one which will cover thousands of miles, is the perfect metaphor for our own personal journeys. They say travel broadens the mind. By definition – “It emphasises the idea that seeing and experiencing new places and ways of life enriches one’s perspective, helping intellectual and emotional growth”. Travel on a six star cruise ship certainly broadens the girth.

The only constant ….. is change.

Anyone who has travelled on the oceans and seas can tell you the sea is always there, it is constant, but it never remains the same. At times it looks almost oily and flat, reflecting the dark end of the spectrum, appearing charcoal black. Then again in shallower waters the sand beneath reflects a beautiful turquoise hue. However the real elements of change are the tidal flow and wind direction. At times working with the ship in the direction it is heading, allowing for a smooth passage. At others working against the ship making for a “sporty” period, which can last for hours or even days. Our life’s journeys’ also inevitably pass through calm and stormy periods.