Political – H.J.Scott & Co

21/09/202621/09/2026

Capitalism

“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money” – Margaret Thatcher

We have yet another budget looming over us, scheduled for 28th October, unless local boy Andy calls a General Election beforehand. So with that in mind I want to announce my undying dedication to capitalism and my complete opposition to the theory of socialism.

The Early Years

I have worked hard since I was 15 to better my lot. I’ve collected driving range golf balls, worked weekend shifts at a petrol station and out of term jobs through 3 years of university in a record store. I’ve even dug ponds. I am authentic working class, with a blue collar, shop-steward father and a shorthand typist mother. The families wealth today has been created by turning up everyday for almost 50 years so far, increasing my business and invest knowledge and taking risks. I’ve paid higher rates of tax along the way and have never been in a position where income tax was avoidable by receiving undeclared cash. UK financial services regulations ensure I cannot handle cash.

Creeping Unfairness

I continue to pay my UK dues. I’ve contributed to HMRC more than most. I’ve been proud to do so. I know many of our clients have similar back stories. However the UK is being turned into a country where working hard is becoming a mugs game. Those who have saved hard and retired with independent means are progressively being unfairly targeted. I wrote about the announced changes to Individual Savings Accounts in my last blog.

Capitalism in the UK is under threat.

08/04/202508/04/2025

The Stroke of a Pen

“the pen is mightier than the sword”

was first used by English author Edward Bulwer-Lytton in 1839.

It seems 186 years later, the phrase still rings true. We have entered a period of extreme uncertainty for all global citizens, governments and of course for us investors. This week will surely be as gut-wrenching as the last.

Many powers around the world, China, Russia, Iran and of course the EU had become committed to the idea that the US was not the Superpower it once was. It could be challenged and nibbled at continually, without provoking a response. Three terms of Obama in power, (no, I don’t believe I’ve made an incorrect statement here) have lead to much of the world believing Uncle Sam is a spent force. With the stroke of a pen, actually with very many strokes of the pen, Trump has unleashed the only bargaining tool he holds – the keys to the US consumers spending habits.

Bombastic, Bully, Stupid, Oligarch, Orangeman, Criminal, Failed Businessman. All probably true of the man to some extent, but of one thing we can be sure, he has huge Cahoonas and follows through on his campaign promises.

I have pretty much devoured every quality article written so far to try to understand the rationale, but more importantly to plot our course once again, now the wind has swung through a full 180 degrees. So far the best reasoning has come from Eoin Treacy, who is a member of our own investment committee. He writes….

18/03/202518/03/2025

Market Corrections

There have been 27 market corrections since 1974. There’s no universally accepted definition of a correction, but most people consider a correction to have occurred when a major stock index, such as the S&P 500^® Index or Dow Jones Industrial Average, declines by more than 10% but less than 20% from its most recent peak. It’s called a correction because historically the drop often “corrects” and returns prices to their longer-term trend.

Even understanding that corrections do occur regularly, often doesn’t help investors with a propensity to worry to handle these setbacks. Every significant reversal from an upward trend feels like a punch to the stomach.

Regular market setbacks are a function of the system, not a glitch. Without smaller setbacks along the way, you can be sure a much larger crash will follow at some point. Usually all the factors that lead to a change in investment sentiment were already in place and accepted, until one day those same factors are perceived as unacceptable. Still we need to learn from these episodes and endeavour to understand why market confidence suddenly evaporates. I continue to read extensively and believe that one of my go to sources of information succinctly describes why the markets have been so upset, so quickly.

Trump

On an obvious level the upset market is all down to Trump’s actions, but probably not for the reason the mainstream media has suggested. In most of the “quality” US financial press channels, Donald Trump, Elon Musk & Co are deplorables. Stirring hatred through clickbait grabs attention, accumulates viewers and readers, which brings in advertising revenue. So don’t expect a balanced view anytime soon from presenters and journalists schooled in never wasting an opportunity to present regular occurrences as complete crises. However don’t forget a large minority of the population of the US didn’t vote Republican and want to see him fail, many traders on Wall Street included.