Met Office UK 1 Month Long Range Weather Forecast
The broad theme of high pressure remaining in place at least close to the UK seems most probable, with occasional more unsettled or changeable interludes, either resulting from Atlantic frontal systems or thundery plumes. This means that rainfall amounts overall are more likely to be below normal than above. Temperatures will probably be above average and some spells of hot weather and heatwaves are possible, especially in the south.
Are we any the wiser now? Was it worth the time it took to read this? Let’s look at how many “we don’t knows” feature in the above paragraph.
broad theme – at least close to – most probable – occasional – more unsettled – changeable – either – more likely – probably – some spells – are possible.
11 “we don’t knows”. 20 out of a total of 69 words. However we are talking about the relatively short term weather here, not to be confused with stating facts about the obviously changing climate. Here’s some climatology definitions-
Weather
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) : “what you experience when you step outside on any given day.” NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration): “conditions outside right now in a specific place (rain, snow, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc.)”.
Climate
NOAA: “Climate is determined by the long-term pattern of temperature and precipitation averages and extremes at a location.” NASA: “The climate of a region or city is its typical or average weather” — determined by observing weather conditions over many years, typically 30 years or more.
Climate Change
NOAA: “changes in average weather conditions that persist over multiple decades or longer.” NASA: “a change in average conditions (temperature, rainfall, etc.) over a long period of time’.
All of the above definitions have been grabbed off the web by AI. So perhaps take them as a guideline only, but these are the guys with accurate measuring equipment and no axe to grind.
Continue reading “Dry Spell”