Hasn’t the year flown by so far? We are already mid way through October, well in to “The Spooky Season” and that leaves less than 10 weeks left until Christmas!
Hunting Season
Half way through October marks a special time in the seasonal investment returns calendar. These next two quarters on average bring around double the return we receive over the previous two quarters. As you know October to March last year brought a far higher return than we could have rightly expected and April to September has been below average at best. Holding more of our portfolios in cash throughout the Summer when return expectations were low has been a comfort to many clients. Yesterday was the 39th anniversary of Black Monday. The FTSE 100 fell 10.8% on the Monday followed by 12.2% on the Tuesday. I had only been in the industry since February ’87 so it was a rude awakening indeed. There was much talk of a similar market outcome yesterday, but we were spared. Perhaps the 40th anniversary next year is the one to look out for. Celebrating 40 years in this profession next February 3rd will be pretty special for me.
Political Season
Along with the opportunities that this coming period of the calendar brings, we receive another tailwind from the US Presidential cycle. This third year is on average the strongest of the four year cycle. So a couple of intersecting good investment periods on the doorstep; What’s not to like?
Continue reading “What am I thinking?”