Dry Spell

Met Office UK 1 Month Long Range Weather Forecast

The broad theme of high pressure remaining in place at least close to the UK seems most probable, with occasional more unsettled or changeable interludes, either resulting from Atlantic frontal systems or thundery plumes. This means that rainfall amounts overall are more likely to be below normal than above. Temperatures will probably be above average and some spells of hot weather and heatwaves are possible, especially in the south.

Are we any the wiser now? Was it worth the time it took to read this? Let’s look at how many “we don’t knows” feature in the above paragraph.

broad theme – at least close to – most probable – occasional – more unsettled – changeable – either – more likely – probably – some spells – are possible.

11 “we don’t knows”. 20 out of a total of 69 words. However we are talking about the relatively short term weather here, not to be confused with stating facts about the obviously changing climate. Here’s some climatology definitions-

Weather

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) : “what you experience when you step outside on any given day.” NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration): “conditions outside right now in a specific place (rain, snow, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc.)”.

Climate

NOAA: “Climate is determined by the long-term pattern of temperature and precipitation averages and extremes at a location.” NASA: “The climate of a region or city is its typical or average weather” — determined by observing weather conditions over many years, typically 30 years or more.

Climate Change

NOAA: “changes in average weather conditions that persist over multiple decades or longer.” NASA: “a change in average conditions (temperature, rainfall, etc.) over a long period of time’.

All of the above definitions have been grabbed off the web by AI. So perhaps take them as a guideline only, but these are the guys with accurate measuring equipment and no axe to grind.

1983 – Graduated with an honours degree.

Here’s where my interest comes from. I have a BSc major in Geography and a minor in Statistics. Who knew? I was taught to question everything and I still do. I find the process invaluable, certainly as an investor, equally annoying personally as a husband and a father. So forget reading about what’s happening today or about tomorrow’s guess, whether it’s hotter, dryer, sunnier, whether there are more deaths and so on and so forth. That will just be the weather and has nothing to do with climate change.

If you want to know why it isn’t News, it’s just narrative, here’s a couple of pointers you could follow up if you so desire.

The Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at Oxford runs the Oxford Climate Journalism Network (OCJN), a flagship program (roughly six months, largely online) aimed specifically at journalists and editors, including modules on climate attribution — the science of linking specific weather events to climate change

The Royal Meteorological Society has run climate communication training sessions specifically for broadcast meteorologists and producers from the BBC, ITV, and Sky — again about connecting extreme weather to climate change for a media audience

Propaganda

“Propaganda is a form of communication that is primarily used to influence an audience and persuade them to further an agenda. Propaganda may not be objective and often selectively presents facts to encourage a particular perception, or uses loaded language to produce an emotional rather than a rational response to the information presented”.

Most of our investment analysis is attempting to sort the wheat from the chaff. The untrue from the true. If we can find the truth we have an edge on those who blindly listen to propaganda.

Our Dry Spell

It has not gone un-noticed that we haven’t published a blog for almost 3 months. A real writing dry spell. We have not been more busy than usual, so that isn’t the reason. Sometimes it is just very hard to write anything. At other times you don’t want to draw that line in the shifting sand by committing to the blog your take on something important. Increasingly, by the time we are ready to say something, the situation has changed yet again. Events have performed a 180 followed by yet another about face. What’s the point of publishing something with no meaning to stay on the safe side? Writing a piece that is full of “we don’t knows” and expecting it to be useful to you. Nobody has enough time to read everything, so everything you read has to have a point. We won’t waste your time.

Of course there has been a lot going on. Domestically a new PM and Chancellor. Has anything really changed though? Who knows? Our man Andy has refused to say what he has in mind and avoided facing PMs Questions and the bulk of media requests. He’s now on holiday. Nothing to write about here, we would be making it up.

Interest rates haven’t fallen or risen (yet). If the Bank of England don’t know what comes next, how would we?

There are two wars going on. Still. Maybe it’s the start of WWIII? Somebody, very succinctly said “Whether you read every news report, or none – you would still have no idea what is really going on in Ukraine or the Strait of Hormuz”.

Oil has spiked in price/oil has now dropped in price. This will increase inflation/inflation is set to fall as a consequence. This is bad news for cash on deposit/this will cause interest rates to fall.

Ai is going to make the world a more efficient, happier and wealthier place. Ai is going to bankrupt everyone and kill off the human race to save itself from anthropogenic climate change.

The summer list goes on. Markets drift over summer, October is when the major investors of the world start to make moves. The next direction is set and blogs need to be posted and read.

The End Of This Dry Spell

Just sitting down at the keyboard is usually all that’s needed to re-start the writing habit. I’ve now thought of something we need to tell you about. Something important that won’t go away, where we are already taking action to mitigate its effect. Standby for two blogs arriving together after a drought of almost 3 months. Reminds me of Andy Burnham’s Bee Network buzzes. (intentional play on bees, buses and northern pronunciation)