In my last blog I asked the question; Have interest rates peaked? As I write this, 96% of analysts project that rates will not rise tomorrow. Further they suggest rates will climb no higher from here with a full 1% reduction due in the last quarter of 2024. The US Federal bank have held rates once again, as have the European Central Bank.
The UK economy is already gradually weakening. Although UK inflation readings did not drop further last month, the trend is undeniably down. All central banks now also need to consider a rapidly worsening situation in the Middle East. Conflict could escalate dramatically from here.
As a consumer of foreign energy imports, the UK stands out as being as resilient to oil and gas price spikes as a feather in the face of Storm Cairan.
Forget Net Zero
Just to make this absolutely clear to all. These concurrent global conflicts are not being fought over Lithium for batteries or Uranium for adequate “green” base load power generation, to save the planet. As usual the conflicts are fought over and financed by oil exporting countries looking to disrupt supply and drive up prices and profits. As existential threats go, a gradual heating of the planet over the next 100 years looks less relevant currently, than mankind’s potential obliteration within the next 100 days.
As a result we now have removed some further shares from our portfolios and with the proceeds from those sales, safer cash reserves are being built still further.
Continue reading “Conflict”