If you wish to avoid embarrassing moments at dinner parties there are some rules you must follow.
- Don’t talk about politics.
- Don’t talk about religion.
- Don’t talk about sex.
- Don’t spill any red wine. (Sorry Stephen & Aileen)
Well because this isn’t a dinner party, I guess I’m free to talk about them all. In fact, although the first three rules should sound like 3 separate subjects, they are now all inextricably linked. What’s more, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to have a view on one without needing to have a corresponding tribal view on all three. What am I talking about? Thursday 4th July. Independence Day in the US, but a General Election here in the UK.
Expected effect on investment markets.
Yes the day has come where we will be asked to choose the party to form a government for the next 5 years. A time where the expectation is stock markets will be volatile. But wait a minute, it seems that the “Risk Index”, the VIX in the US and the Citi Macro Risk Index here in the UK is sitting at roundabout all time lows. Just look at the 20 year chart below. This suggests there are no nasty market surprises just around the corner.
Continue reading “Don’t mention it”