There will be no trumpet fanfare or bell ringing to signal it’s now safe to come out. Nobody will wave a starting flag if past market corrections are anything to go off, that officially commences the rally. Slowly the good news will start to be seen amongst all of the bad news. Imperceptibly attitudes will change and business as usual will return, along with the investment markets commencing their gradual recovery.
Our 30% market falls were sudden and indiscriminate. It’s often said that market gains take the stairs up, but the lift down. Actually to be precise “markets take the escalator up but the elevator down”. The difference matters as we start to see the first glimmers of a slowdown in deaths and new cases in Italy, but new cases are doubling daily in New York. As I always say, markets are moved by what the Americans think rather than what we think and right now it looks like the deaths in America will exceed everywhere else on the planet combined. There are just so many older and at risk individuals who live there and healthcare isn’t free.
Continue reading “Are we there yet?”