February is over

Last time I wrote about how the bulk of our returns come through the winter months, the “Santa Rally” and of the first week in January dictating the direction of travel over the month, the quarter and indeed the year. I didn’t mention February.

A Typical February

February started well but tailed off towards the end. Should we take it that the Fairy Tale recovery we are all waiting for has disappeared? Well no. February can usually be seen as a holding month, often a consolidation month after a strong start. On average, February is often a poor month within the 1st quarter performance in total.

The economic news did worsen this month though, but it hardly pointed to recession just yet.

Good News is Bad News!

As always, we look to the US and a much followed economic indicator. The payrolls report is a lagging indicator, as it quantifies what has happened, rather than what comes next. In the UK we concentrate on unemployment numbers, rather than the number of individuals in work.

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