Fragile

I’m hoping for good weather today, because this evening I’m going to see Sting perform at the Lytham Festival. I have been a fan of Sting since grammar school days when The Police released their first album Outlandos d’Amour in 1978. I was wondering about which hits Sting would choose from his vast back catalogue; “Roxanne”, “Every breath you take” and “Don’t stand so close to me” obviously, perhaps the currently relevant “Russians”, but hopefully “Fragile”.

“On and on the rain will fall, Like tears from a star like tears from a star, On and on the rain will say, How fragile we are how fragile we are”

STING

Our Fragile World

Fragile describes the world we live in today. There is precious little that we can rely upon to remain unchanged tomorrow. The only constant in our lives is change itself. Here is a list of the fragile systems we currently adapt to everyday.

• The UK economy
• UK politics
• Labour relations
• Government legislation
• Stubbornly high inflation
• Rising interest rates
• The NHS
• The civil service
• The global economy
• International relations
• Global dictators
• Normal climate
• Extreme weather events
• Extremism
• Accidents
• Black Swan events
• Gender
• Our own health
• The health of our loved ones
• Our energy levels
• Our ambition levels

I could go on. It’s easy to see how newspapers get filled every day and social media is thriving. If all systems, economies, businesses, individuals and relationships were robust, there would be no news. However much of the news isn’t a reflection of what has changed, it is more a speculation of what could change. The possibilities are endlessly discussed.

What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is famous for writing the book “The Black Swan“, but one of his later books “Anti-fragile” is more useful to understand the tension in the world today.

He puts forward the theory that it is exactly because of these fragile conditions that we are forced to endure, that we remain strong. Without exercise strength isn’t gained. Without use, decay follows.

We are 18 months into this market setback, it won’t last forever. Without these regular resets the markets would continue to move to fragile extremes and eventually there would be an almighty collapse.

Obviously, sometimes it has to be a struggle to remain an investor, otherwise everyone would go the distance and therefore no individual could do better than the next. Hopefully this blog demonstrates it is endurance that makes the winners anti-fragile. Taleb’s books are well worth the read.

In the meantime

Unfortunately our health sometimes imperceptibly, but never the less continuously, continues to go downhill. We as a firm are increasingly offering help and advice to individuals who suffer chronic and often terminal conditions. Over time we have seen many relationships fracture and have been on hand to help with the financial implications.

35 years later, our firm has been transformed from where it began. Ensuring house purchases and mortgages completed on time. Ensuring bread-winners had insurances in place. It’s not surprising we have adapted, our offering had to change as we have all got older. This last week alone, I have learned about 4 new grandchildren that have been added to our clients families.

So change is constant. Bad follows good and good follows bad. In the meantime we are all on our finite journeys which will inevitably end. There is little point in waiting for the world to settle before we make further plans to discover new experiences, because all of these fragile systems are here to stay.