Scottish Independence

I have had several clients ask me if there is likely to be any problem with the Nucleus platform, should Scotland vote Yes. The short answer is no. If independence does happen I will then quickly give you the long answer.

What is interesting to me is what happens outside of Scotland? Here’s what I think could happen and I would be interested to know if any client can see any error in my assumptions. The map above shows the number of seats that Labour currently holds in Scotland in red and the number the Conservatives hold in blue. No big deal then to the Conservatives should Scotland leave, big problems I would suggest for Labour here in the UK. With Scottish seats not counting in a future UK general election, how could Labour ever regain power in the UK after Scottish Independence scheduled for 5th May 2016?

A yes vote sees the conservatives stay in power and unless Cameron reneges on his promise, there will then be a referendum in the future on our continued membership of the EU. Should Scotland make a go of it, and I think they will; Would the UK then have the confidence to leave the EU and go it alone too?

So if Scotland vote yes, perhaps expect us to exit the EU shortly after.

If Scotland vote no, Labour approach next years general election with additional Scottish strength assured and victory would be theirs.

I’ve not even factored in the potential UKIP seat gains, and they obviously want our national borders back.

From a UK stock market perspective, the Scottish vote should be a significant event.